Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-07-13 37.122487 40.426308 44.091952 48.502249 53.722174 59.779603 67.458024
2025-07-20 31.927680 36.124769 41.114006 47.619063 56.099772 67.138304 83.282649
2025-07-27 30.262421 35.228644 41.451708 50.110609 62.385506 80.188557 110.467304
2025-08-03 28.562137 33.932138 40.925009 51.149828 66.658156 91.371498 140.048599
2025-08-10 26.950194 32.509683 39.964900 51.301035 69.482358 100.962986 172.582787
2025-08-17 25.154878 30.648656 38.160246 49.889681 69.454688 105.479659 197.663755
2025-08-24 23.622847 29.013087 36.499561 48.447953 69.049382 109.092488 223.772765
2025-08-31 23.239739 28.926317 37.036077 50.476429 75.061193 127.987362 321.040764
2025-09-07 22.076339 27.644136 35.680621 49.234762 74.740243 132.567343 375.508525
2025-09-14 21.090425 26.555788 34.532473 48.207614 74.645288 137.737004 447.536022
2025-09-21 19.900922 25.110031 32.744579 45.914771 71.642520 134.296097 463.257685
2025-09-28 19.275080 24.459340 32.145673 45.636625 72.776775 142.875542 599.664454
2025-10-05 19.024141 24.473617 32.782579 48.006023 81.039823 181.588158 1789.969379
2025-10-12 18.107508 23.448220 31.702860 47.153277 82.022103 198.560892 5546.391920
2025-10-19 17.892563 23.467200 32.315827 49.602371 91.957324 268.198428 NaN
2025-10-26 17.448686 23.091744 32.220696 50.623548 98.671118 342.177535 NaN
2025-11-02 16.910686 22.528332 31.745146 50.772107 103.002903 419.485252 NaN
2025-11-09 16.195446 21.639372 30.627872 49.385250 102.095997 452.358081 NaN
2025-11-16 15.533679 20.804644 29.552179 47.968052 100.730373 481.034556 NaN
2025-11-23 15.394634 20.809565 29.977014 49.961872 111.955590 776.902436 NaN
2025-11-30 14.843320 20.107333 29.060866 48.741536 110.996476 863.019697 NaN
2025-12-07 14.356455 19.491578 28.268799 47.731753 110.605145 984.880979 NaN
2025-12-14 13.741695 18.641324 27.000752 45.476746 104.693506 884.430434 NaN